The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will likely have above-normal activity, according to the annual outlook produced by NOAA.
NOAA issues an Atlantic hurricane season outlook each May, using computer models that consider current climate and ocean conditions.
“Everything is in place for an above-average season.”
The agency estimates that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November, will have up to 19 named storms and up to 10 hurricanes. Three to five of those hurricanes are projected to reach major hurricane strength (categories 3, 4, and 5).
Between 1991 and 2020, the Atlantic hurricane season featured seven hurricanes on average.
The report predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
“Everything is in place for an above-average season,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, at a press conference held in Jefferson Parish, La. NOAA selected Jefferson Parish as the location for the announcement to commemorate the 20-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
The above-average activity forecasted by NOAA will be fueled by above-average temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, forecasts for weak wind conditions, and the potential for higher activity of this year’s West African Monsoon.
The NOAA predictions align with predictions from other institutions, including Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Weather and Climate Research Group. CSU’s forecast predicted 9 hurricanes and 17 named storms for the 2025 season, with 4 of those storms predicted to reach major hurricane strength.
Scientists expect the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon that affects how heat is stored in the oceans, to remain in a neutral condition or transition to La Niña conditions this summer. Such conditions lead to decreased wind shear, which slightly favors hurricane formation.
In 2024, El Niño conditions, along with human-caused climate change, fueled a spike in ocean temperatures that caused a destructive Atlantic hurricane season. Warming oceans fuel stronger hurricanes that bring more heavy rainfall and higher storm surge when they make landfall.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you.”
The odds of El Niño developing this year as the hurricane season peaks are low—less than 15%, according to the latest NOAA prediction. While El Niño conditions tend to increase ocean temperatures, El Niño also creates wind shear that breaks up weather patterns, hindering hurricane intensification. If El Niño conditions do return by the fall, the likelihood of hurricane formation could drop. CSU plans to release an updated forecast on 11 June.
At the press conference, NOAA officials asked those in hurricane-prone areas to prepare for the busy season. “A community that is more informed and prepared will have a greater opportunity to rebound quickly from weather and climate related events,” said Cynthia Lee Sheng, president of Jefferson Parish.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Michael Bell, a meteorologist at CSU and author of the CSU outlook, in a statement.
The above-average season coincides with unprecedented staffing shortages due to layoffs and staff buyouts at NOAA and its National Weather Service (NWS), which issues hurricane and flood warnings and provides critical emergency information during storms. In a 2 May open letter, five former NWS directors said the agency “will have an impossible task” trying to continue its current level of services amid staff and funding cuts.
—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer